Session: 1C, Monday, 25 January 2009, 0800 – 1000
Moderator: Jeffrey Thomas, Raytheon Missile Systems Division
The papers present recommended and new practices, techniques, and new technical design and theoretical solutions for achievement and enhancement of reliability as it is designed into the products.
Papers
1C1 [0032] “Fatigue Life of a Design Subject to Wide-band Random Loading,” by Wendai Wang, Ph.D., Applied Materials
This paper proposes a frequency-domain method to predict fatigue life or reliability of a design subject to wide-band random loading for engineering design.
1C2 [0204] Increasing the reliability of a self-optimizing railway guidance system, by Christoph Sondermann-Wolke, Jens Geisler and Walter Sextro, University of Paderborn
In this paper we present for the first time experimental results of the proposed reliability concept for self-optimizing systems. Firstly, reliability aspects in a self-optimizing system are discussed. Secondly, the proposed reliability concept and the implementation in the active self-optimizing guidance system of a railway vehicle are described. Finally, the experimental tests are evaluated and compared to simulations.
1C3 [0105] Design for Reliability in Medical Devices, byVaishali Hegde, Philips Respironics, and Dev G. Raheja, PE, CRE, Patient Safety System
The challenges faced by medical device manufacturers in bringing safe, reliable, low overall life-cycle cost products to market in a timely manner is increasing rapidly. With the global recession and increasing safety recalls, a good design for reliability (DFR) program is becoming imperative. However, theoretical knowledge of DFR is not enough. This paper discusses DFR paradigms, developed from years of experience; that are necessary to ensure a successful DFR program in the medical device industry.
1C4 [0217] Soft Error from concept to reality Allocation, Prediction and Mitigation, by Nematollah Bidokhti, Cisco Systems
For a number of years products are being impacted by transient faults that cause the systems to fail and returned to suppliers as returned material authorization (RMA). After further analysis, they deemed to be good and no problem found and ultimately sent back out to potential customers and replacements. These returns are most likely being caused by Single Event Upsets. The phenomenon of Single Event Upset (SEU) is a well known and documented and affects electronic circuitry.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 1D, 0800-1000, Monday, 25 January 2010
Moderator: Reuben Mann, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Both government and commercial organizations across the world are recognizing the importance of a strong reliability program to ensure success. This session will explore improvements and best practices for R&M implementation by the US Military, commercial entities and transportation companies.
1D1 [0040] The Impact of Changes In Defense Policy on Reliability and Sustainment
by Patrick M. Dallosta, Defense Acquisition University
Government Accounting Office and other major reports have identified significant reliability problems in defense programs that are rooted in poorly defined and implemented systems engineering processes and the lack of reliability growth programs. The paper addresses DoD’s governance processes and the increased emphasis on the Systems Engineering discipline, technical review processes, and Reliability Growth programs, and the impact of the Materiel Availability metric in design and sustainment.
1D2 [0221] Analysis of Customized Warranty Policies for Heterogeneous Populations
by Dia St. John and C. Richard Cassady, Ph.D., University of Arkansas
We consider the development of one-dimensional, non-renewing, free-replacement warranty policies for heterogeneous customer populations through individually analyzing customer groups, each with its own time to failure distribution. In addition, we analyze the possible benefits gained though the use of a customized warranty policy over a standard policy for all customers.
1D3 [0030] Best Practices for Effective Reliability Program Plans
by Carl S. Carlson, Georgios Sarakakis, David J. Groebel, and Adamantios Mettas, ReliaSoft Corporation
In this paper we take a comprehensive look into the practice of developing and executing reliability program plans. We present best practices concerning the process of developing and implementing a reliability program plan, we identify the common pitfalls and the lessons learned from developing reliability program plans and we present the results of a broad survey that captures and categorizes common practices and problems when developing and implementing a reliability program plan.
1D4 [0150] Modeling and quantification of aging systems for maintenance optimization
by William Lair, SNCF, Sophie Mercier, Michel Roussignol, Ph.D., Paris Est University, and Rachid Ziani, SNCF
This paper deals with the maintenance optimization of an air conditioning system of a train. The air conditioning system is a parallel system consisting of seventeen aging components. For that matter, we model the system with a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP). The resolution of the C-K equation gives us the marginal distributions of this process. We calculate an approximation of these solutions with a finite volume algorithm and we use them to optimize a maintenance strategy.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 2C, Monday, 25 January 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: John Ackerman, US Army ARDEC
This session covers applying reliability tools to new products or new uses. Papers include applying Petri nets to hybrid vehicles; an efficient method to determine optimal design configurations for repairable systems; comparing classic spares tools vs. newer reliability-based tools in Performance Based Logistics; and combinatorial methods for reliability and sensitivity analysis of multi-state systems.
Papers:
2C1 [0179] Application of ECSPN to RAMS Modeling & Analysis of Hybrid Car Drive Systems
by Steffen Nebel, Andrea Dieter, Peter Mueller, Institute of Machine Components, and Bernd Bertsche, Dr.-Ing., Universitaet Stuttgart
In our paper we will present the application of extended colored stochastic Petri nets to the modeling and analysis of hybrid drive systems, especially to the battery ageing. We will show the results of a simulation study considering a strong hybrid vehicle. The effect of different operational modes on battery discharging and charging will be shown and discussed.
2C2 [0218] Redundancy Optimization Problem with Shared Warm-standby redundancy
by Suprasad V. Amari, Ph.D., CRE,and Glenn Dill, Relex Software Corporation
This paper presents an efficient method to determine optimal design configurations for nonrepairable series systems where distinct groups of subsystems share a distinct common pool of warm standby components.
2C3 [0163] Feasibility of Provisioning Spares using Reliability Software Programs
by Reuben Mann, Craig Rich, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Newer defense acquisition practices, such as Performance Based Logistics, increase the Contractors accountability for ensuring that that End User can adequately perform his mission. With this increased financial incentive, it is imperative that the Contractor accurately model the support strategy. This paper compares the spares provisioning capabilities of commonly used tools against newer reliability-based tools.
2C4 [0094] Reliability, Sensitivity Analysis of Imperfect Coverage Multi-State Systems
by Akhilesh Shrestha, Liudong Xing, Ph.D., Univ. of Massachusetts Dartmouth, & Suprasad V. Amari, Ph.D., CRE, Relex Software Corporation
An exact & efficient combinatorial method based on multi-state multi-valued decision diagrams is proposed for the reliability & sensitivity analysis of multi-state systems (MSS) subject to imperfect coverage. The method is applicable to MSS with any arbitrary system structure specified in terms of either capacitated networks or multi-state fault trees. And it is applicable for MSS with ordered or unordered component/system states.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 2D, Monday, 25 January 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: Edward J. Zampino, NASA Glenn Research Center
System reliability needs to be optimized through proven assessment and growth techniques during the development phase of all projects. This session will assist in formulating such techniques through successful case studies and newly developed methodologies for complex systems.
Papers:
2D1 [0176] A Comparison of the Robustness of Reliability Growth Assessment Techniques
by Martin Wayne and Paul M. Ellner, Ph.D., US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity
This paper exams the accuracy and robustness of several widely used reliability growth assessment techniques under a number of realistic corrective action processes, to include a newly developed technique that was formulated to address cases where the accuracy of the existing methodologies is degraded. These include various corrective action processes along with cases where the number of failure modes in the system is not large compared to the number of failure modes surfaced during testing.
2D2 [0171] Optimization of MultiState Element Replacement Policy for MultiState System
by Yu Liu and Hong-Zhong Huang, Ph.D., Univ. of Electronic Sci. & Tech. of China
Multi-state systems (MSS), which can perform their intended tasks with various distinguished levels of efficiency, widely exist in industrial engineering and have received a growing attention in recently years. In this paper, we generalize a multi-state element replacement optimization problem to multi-state systems.
2D3 [0167] New Army and DoD Reliability Scorecard
by Marguerite Shepler and Nancy Welliver, USAMSAA
In December 2007, the Army Acquisition Executive approved the new Army Reliability Policy. The policy was developed to cost-effectively increase the reliability of Army systems. One of the policy’s key elements is an early review of reliability and testing efforts to determine if a program is on the right path for achieving the reliability requirements. The Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) and the Army Evaluation Center (AEC) developed a new Reliability Scorecard.
2D4 [0255] Spare Part Inventory Control Driven by Condition Based Maintenance
by Haitao Liao, Ph.D., Wichita State University, and Mitchell Rausch, Cessna Aircraft Company
The availability of spare parts often becomes the bottleneck of process throughput, and sometimes expensive emergency orders of spare parts have to be placed to meet a production due date. This paper addresses a joint production and spare part inventory control strategy driven by condition based maintenance (CBM) for a piece of manufacturing equipment with a critical unit.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 4C, Monday, 25 January 2010, 1445-1645
Moderator: Michael J. Cushing, PhD, US Army Evaluation Center
This session describes actions being taken within the Department of Defense to implement new RAM initiatives directed by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology. Information is presented on the use of reliability engineering design practices; the concept, definition, and rationale for Materiel Availability (Am); and guidelines for Army T&E community use to insure RAM engineering and RAM T&E requirements remain at the forefront of T&E planning and management.
Papers:
4C1 [0268] IMPLEMENTING NEW RAM INITIATIVES IN ARMY TEST AND EVALUATION by
Ken Dalton, Kristina Diaz, and J. Brian Hall, Ph.D., U.S. Army Evaluation Center
Describes implementation guide prepared by the U.S. Army Evaluation Center for the Army’s RAM acquisition workforce. Cornerstone provisions of the new implementation guide are the new GEIA-STD-00095 for developing contract language covering reliability best practices, the Army Materiel System Analysis Activity’s (AMSAA) Reliability Program Scorecard for evaluation of vendors’ reliability design principles and management strategies, and the use of reliability growth concepts.
4C2 [0271] DISCUSSION OF NEW DOD INITIATIVES TO ADDRESS LIFE CYCLE SUSTAINMENT ISSUES by Grant Schmeider, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Recent DoD acquisition policy changes intended to ensure program affordability and suitability have been met with varying degrees of acceptance throughout the services. In May 2007 the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) issued new guidance implementing a mandatory Sustainment Metric consisting of an Availability Key Performance Parameter (KPP) and two supporting Key Systems Attributes (KSAs): Reliability and Ownership Cost.
4C3 [0272] ENGINEERING DESIGN ANALYSIS (PHYSICS OF FAILURE) by
Gary Drake, US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity
The US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) conducts PoF analyses to support contractors, program managers (PMs) and engineers on systems in all stages of acquisition from design, to test and evaluation (T&E) and fielded systems. In the design stage system level dynamics models, component finite element models and fatigue-life models are used to reveal the underlying physics of the hardware in its mission environment.
4C4 [0273] IMPROVED RELIABILITY TESTING WITH MULTIAXIAL ELECTRODYNAMICS VIBRATION by Ed Habtour, U.S. Army Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)
This paper discusses the development of Physics of Failure (POF) techniques that permit developers to better capture design defects in electronic items subjected to multiaxial eletrodynamice vibration thereby enhancing the design for reliability process.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 5C, Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 0800 – 1000
Moderator: Dan Quearry, Naval Surface Warfare – Crane Division
4 Members of the MIL-HDBK-217 Working Group present their ideas and thoughts on the military handbook revision progress, and accomplishments towards completion of Rev G in December 2009.
Papers:
5C1 [0013] DEVELOPMENT OF PHOTONICS COMPONENT FAILURE RATE MODELS by
David B. Nicholls, CRE, Reliability Information Analysis Center, John Mazurowski, Penn State University Electro-Optics Center, Anthony Avak, Michael Hackert, Naval Air Warfare Center
This paper describes work sponsored by the Naval Air Systems Command through the Pennsylvania State University Electro-Optics Center to develop photonics component failure rate models. Two model forms were developed as part of this effort. The first is compatible with, and being incorporated into, MIL-HDBK-217G. The second is compatible with, and being incorporated into, the Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC) 217Plus system reliability assessment methodology.
5C2 [0109] REVISION OF MIL-HDBK-217, RELIABILITY PREDICTION OF ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT by Jeff Harms, Naval Surface Warfare Center, Crane Division
MIL-HDBK-217 is being revised. It is the most widely known and used reliability prediction tool in the reliability engineering community and the current revision is outdated. A plan has been created to refresh the handbook and to look at adding a new approach to better reflect reliability of electronic equipment. This paper will discuss the work being performed and a roadmap of where MIL-HDBK-217 is headed.
5C3 [0023] INDUSTRY CONSENSUS APPROACH TO PHYSICS OF FAILURE IN RELIABILITY PREDICTION by Lori Bechtold, Boeing Research & Technology
Traditional reliability prediction methods are being confounded by current and near future semiconductor technologies, as gate feature sizes shrink below 100 nanometers causing the emergence of atomic level failure mechanisms and early wearout. The Physics of Failure (PoF) approach to reliability has advantages for assessing these technologies. Industry collaborative research in AVSI and VITA is being used to develop new reliability prediction approaches to meet future industry challenges.
5C4 [0001] ENHANCING MIL-HDBK-217 RELIABILITY PREDICTIONS WITH PHYSICS OF FAILURE METHODS by James McLeish, DfR Solutions
The U.S. Defense Standardization Program Office (DSPO) has initiated a multi phase effort to update MIL-HDBK-217, the military’s often imitated reliability prediction bible for electronics equipment that has not been updated since 1995. This paper discusses a potential enhancement to 217 using physics of failure (PoF) methods.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 6D, Tuesday, 26 January, 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: Reuben Mann, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Early on assessment of reliability is becoming more important these days with demanding reliability requirements of advanced technology projects. This session will discuss the available tools to make intelligent high impact decisions during the proposal and selection phase of projects.
Papers:
6D1 [0054] RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT IN RESEARCH PROJECTS by
Roland Schmidt, ABB Switzerland Ltd.
Equipment for renewable energy like wind power is requested to show low failures and a high reliability over quite a long time period, especially for off-shore wind parks. The earlier in the development phase reliability and risk assessment is performed, the easier and cheaper is a design improvement. Therefore, it is necessary to include risk assessment already in research projects. Approaches and experiences how to implement risk assessment there are shared and discussed.
6D2 [0002] TWO RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE ACQUISITION AND GROWTH OF RELIABLE SYSTEMS by David B. Nicholls, CRE and Paul Lein, Reliability Information Analysis Center
The metrics recommended in this paper, and the corrective actions they initiate, provide benchmarks to improve both the effectiveness of acquisitions in avoiding high-risk life cycle cost decisions, and the ability of Design for Reliability (DFR) activities to proactively identify and mitigate failure modes prior to their more costly discovery during testing or field use.
6D3 [0182] THINKING OUT OF THE BOX” STRATEGY ADOPTED FOR RAPID FSS R&M IMPLEMENTATION by Sheila Stenson Prather, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Can a team transition timely enough in their analysis methodology/mindset, tool(s) usage, and team implementation to comply with this highly complex program’s compressed review schedule? Can they identify 5,500-plus failure modes, model 2,000-plus unique part numbers, define 40,000-plus maintenance tasks, and deliver 28 documents in a compressed timeline? The answer is yes. Hear how this team employed their “thinking out of the box” strategy for ultimate success.
6D4 [0097] VEHICLE WIDE OPTIMIZATION OF SUBSYSTEM TRADE STUDY OPTION SELECTION by
Chris Mattenberger, Valador, Inc.
The Altair Lunar Lander has recently employed a risk informed design processes to improve the reliability of the vehicle. This paper explores the optimization of subsystem trade study option selection as performed during the Lunar Design Analysis Cycle and the value added.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 7C, Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 1330-1530
Moderator: Marcia F. P. Salgado, UFMG
This session contains a collection of papers that explore a variety of modeling and analysis approaches for repairable systems, multi-state systems, and systems that age.
Papers:
7C1 [0045] NONPARAMETRIC LIFE CONSUMPTION MODELING OF HIGH END DRILLING TOOLS
by Dustin Garvey, Martin John, Jorg Baumann, Baker Hughes, and J. Wesley Hines, Ph.D., University of Tennessee
This paper will include a description and demonstration of a data driven life consumption model for data collected from high end drilling tools.
7C2 [0244] RELIABILITY OPTIMIZATION IN MULTI-STATE DEPENDANT-INDEPENDENT SYSTEMS by Vahid Ebrahimipour, Ph.D., Seyed Mostafa Alem, and Mohammad Reza Skandari, Tehran University
In this multi-state system, item j has kj different performance level. The performance level of the items of this system may be dependent on those of other items of the system. The dependency between two items in a system can be of one of these four types: 1.Both independent, 2.One independent and the other dependant on it, 3.Both dependent on a common item, 4.Both dependent, but not on a common item. The items within a sub-system may be different using (UGF)to calculate the reliability of system.
7C3 [0142] DESIGN OF ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING USING PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS-PROPORTIONAL ODDS by Tingting Huang, Tongmin Jiang, Beihang University
Accelerated life testing (ALT) needs well planned in order to decrease the inaccuracy of extrapolation. This paper discusses PH-PO model based multiple stress type ALT test planning. Two types of information based optimality criteria are considered, D-optimality and A-optimality. This paper presents a distribution free test planning method based on these two optimality criteria. An example is given to verify the validity of this test planning method.
7C4 [0089] PIECEWISE NHPP MODELS WITH MLE SOLUTIONS FOR REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS by
Huairui Guo, Ph.D., Adamantios Mettas, and Georgios Sarakakis, ReliaSoft Corporation
This paper proposes a piecewise NHPP model for repairable systems that experience design or operation environment changes. When the design configuration or the operation environment changes, the failure behavior of a system will also change. The piecewise NHPP model not only can reflect these changes but also considers the damage accumulated before the changes.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 7D, Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 1330-1530
Moderator: Fred Schenkelberg, Ops A La Carte
The papers in this session explore innovations, advanced theories, and new ideas for conducting accelerated life testing. In this session, papers include a method for accelerating life of viscoelastic materials at sub-sea pressures, accelerated test designs (PRST, fixed time tests and others), modular approaches to testing, and an alternative step-stress test process.
Papers:
7D1 [0180] DEVELOPMENT OF ACCELERATION LIFE TESTING MODEL OF SUBSEA PRESSURE
by Amar Raja Thiraviam, Thomas Foley, Teledyne-ODI, and Linda Malone, Ph.D., University of Central Florida
Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) is an effective method of demonstrating and improving product reliability. ALT accelerates a given failure mode by testing at amplified stress level(s) in excess of operational limits. Statistical Analysis is then performed on the data, based on acceleration model to make life predictions at use level. The acceleration model thus forms the basis of accelerated life testing methodology. Well established models such as the Arrhenius model and the Inverse Power model.
7D2 [0174] ACCELERATED RELIABILITY DEMONSTRATION, RD, AND ASSURANCE, SPRT TESTS DESIGN by Milena Krasich, PE, Raytheon, UIDS
This paper explains the technical and mathematical methodology for acceleration of reliability qualification (fixed duration with and without replacement) and reliability assurance tests (SPRT) using physics, engineering rationale, and a mathematical approach in the test design and data analysis. This approach is with the intent to obtain meaningful and relevant information on reliability of products in their actual use and in a cost and schedule effective manner.
7D3 [0017] TEMPERATURE ACCELERATION MODELS IN RELIABILITY PREDICTIONS: JUSTIFICATION AND IMPROVEMENTS by Adamantios Mettas, Reliasoft Corporation, and Franck Bayle, Thales Avionics
Reliability predictions have been for a long time a difficult task because of the antagonism between high reliability level and the weakness of component manufacturer data. A solution to this difficulty is described in this paper using improved models.
7D4 [0136] STEP-STRESS ADT DATA ESTIMATION BASED ON TIME SERIES METHOD by
Li Wang, Xiaoyang Li, Ph.D., Bo Wan, and Tongmin Jiang, Beihang University
Step-Stress Accelerated Degradation Testing (SSADT) is commonly used to evaluate the lifetime of long lifetime and high reliability products.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 8C, Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 1545-1745
Moderator: Frank (Feng-Bin) Sun, Ph.D., Western Digital Corporation
This session will present many novel ideas and new applications of Bayesian approaches in reliability engineering, from risk assessment to design decision making to system reliability analysis to condition-based maintenance.
Papers:
8C1 [0220] DOWNWARDS PROPAGATING: BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX ON DEMAND SYSTEMS by Christopher Jackson, Royal Australian Army and Ali Mosleh, Ph.D., University of Maryland at College Park
This paper aims to deal with multiple data sets from different levels of complex on-demand systems. The paper will propose a method for incorporating overlapping higher level and lower level data in a Bayesian construct in order to update component reliability information. The technique can then be used to allow coordinated evidence sets from various system levels to reveal as much information as possible, and hence allow sensor placement optimization.
8C2 [0199] DEVELOPMENTAL SPACE-SYSTEM ELICITATION TECHNIQUES FOR RISK-INFORMED DESIGN by Benjamin J. Franzini, Amanda Verges, and Blake F. Putney, Valador Inc.
The expert elicitation technique discussed in this paper conveys a method of risk-informed design performed in support of NASA Lunar Surface Systems design that is guided by system design documents and based heavily on face-to-face designer interaction and elicitation. This approach has proven to be very efficient, as designers are closely engaged early in design cycles and forced to focus on reliability strategies that were heavily influenced and implemented by the designer’s own expertise.
8C3 [0256] RBF DISTRIBUTION REDUCES LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE BIAS OF SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
by Moshe Felix Barmoav, Motorola
This paper presents a new method to address the likelihood estimates bias as a result of small sample size and the new distribution attributes and flexibility.
8C4 [0223] Qualitative-Quantitative Bayesian Belief Networks for Risk Assessment
by Chengdong Wang, Ali Mosleh, Ph.D., University of Maryland at College Park
This paper presents a new methodology combining the quantitative and qualitative Bayesian Belief Networks together to do the risk assessment and reliability analysis.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 8D, Tuesday, 26 January 2010, 1545-1745
Moderator: Jon G. Elerath, SolFocus
Practical applications of accelerated life testing are considered in this session. Papers in this session include shaft-seals with complex failure modes, applications to avionics, accelerated tests for software, and a case study of quartz flexible accelerometers.
Papers:
8D1 [0085] ACCELERATED TESTING OF SHAFT SEALS AS COMPONENTS WITH COMPLEX FAILURE MODES by Benjamin Klein. Daniel Kirschmann, Werner Haas, and Bernd Bertsche, Dr.-Ing., Universitaet Stuttgart
In many cases of sealing rotating components in mechanical engineering radial shaft seals (RSS) are used. These components can still not be included in the lifetime calculation of a system. In this paper the difficulty of accelerated testing of RSS is presented. To show the complexity of this component, the fundamentals, as the concept of the RSS as a sealing system, the influences on lifetime, the definition of the failure and the failure modes, are a main part.
8D2 [0034] A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO ACCELERATED STRESS TESTING FOR AVIONICS PRODUCTS by Michael Zimmermann, Rockwell Collins, Inc.
Much has been published regarding the benefits of accelerated stress testing; however, it seems that much of the literature has been related to low(er) cost/complexity commercial and automotive products. This paper outlines a practical test method for high cost/performance commercial/military avionics products, while addressing the associated challenges of limited sample size and applying stresses in a manner that uncovers defects without overstressing the product too early in the test process.
8D3 [0124] SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ACCELERATED TESTING METHOD BASED ON MIXED TESTING by Yumei Wu, Beijing Univ of Aeronautics & Astronnautics, Yongqi Zhang, China Telecom, and Minyan Lu, Beijing Univ of Aeronautics & Astronnautics
The software reliability accelerated testing method (SRAT) is proposed to improve the efficiency of software reliability testing. The software reliability assessment model based on the SRAT is also presented, its effectiveness and validity is verified. A thorough case study done for the web based software system is introduced in this paper.
8D4 [0164] USEFUL LIFE PREDICTION FOR QUARTZ FLEXIBLE ACCELEROMETERS USING ACCELERATED by Huiguo Zhang, Yunxia Chen, and Rui Kang, Beihang University
This paper presents a case study of a useful life prediction for quartz flexible accelerometers. Performance degradation data under several thermal and vibration loading is obtained from an accelerated test. Accelerated degradation models are developed from test record using regression analysis. And degradation models were verified via step-stress accelerated testing by computing cumulative damage rates. Using the verified models, useful life is predicted.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 9C, Wednesday, 27 January 2010, 0800-1000
Moderator: James M. Loman, Ph.D., Space Systems Loral
Papers in this session will tell you how to read and use field data correctly, and show you some brilliant ways to estimate reliability from testing results.
Papers:
9C1 [0041] RELIABILITY ESTIMATION FOR ONE-SHOT SYSTEMS WITH ZERO COMPONENT FAILURES by Huairui Guo, Ph.D., Sharon Honecker, Adamantios Mettas, and Doug Ogden, ReliaSoft Corporation
This paper proposes a method to estimate reliability for one-shot systems from subsystem test data when there are no observed failures in the subsystem tests. This method also can be applied to the general cases when failures are observed.
9C2 [0189] ESTIMATING FIELD FAILURE RATE FROM THE RESULTS OF HALT
by Harry McLean, Advanced Energy and Mike Silverman – Ops A La Carte
How many of us have wanted to use the HALT data to estimate Annualized Failure Rate (AFR)? The common response is that “it cannot be done.” In fact, it is possible but what is needed is a good model and good data to back the model. This paper describes a model that we developed based on HALT experience combined with field data.
9C3 [0210] INCORPORATING PRODUCT RETIREMENT IN FIELD PERFORMANCE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS by Ke Zhao, Duane Steffey, Ph.D., and John Loud, Exponent, Inc.
Modern consumer electronic products retire at much faster rates than previous generations of products. Neglecting to account for the shortened age of early retired units can lead to inaccurate characterization of the time-to-failure distribution. We present several case studies in which reliability estimates vary significantly, depending on whether retirement is addressed in the analysis, thus demonstrating the practical value of accounting for the product retirement of surviving units.
9C4 [0074] FIELD FAILURE RATE, MORE THAN YOU MAY THINK
by James A. McLinn, Rel-Tech Group
Ramp up, commercialization or roll-out are all common terms for one stage of a project when it goes from a low level production rate to a high rate. During this time, it is common for new problems to arise and the time to failure remain unknown. When shipping systems without operating time clocks or serialization, only the quantities shipped and quantities replaced are known. This paper will show some common errors with these model attempts that can be avoided.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 9D, Wednesday, 27 January 2010, 0800-1000
Moderator: Susie Go, Ph.D., NASA Ames Research Center
This session includes papers demonstrating the application of a spectrum physical and logical models to the solution of reliability and risk related problems. The physical models are developed for a variety of environments including fragmentation and combustion physics. The logical models include both discrete event Monte Carlo based analyses and continuous time Markov related models.
Papers:
9D1 [0055] APPLYING DISCRETE EVENT MODELING TO THE REAL WORLD
by Jim Owens, Scott Miller, The Dow Chemical Company, and Daniel Deans, Millennium Engineering and Integration Co.
Application of Discrete Event Modeling to drive availability of systems and to identify areas for improvement provides program managers and reliability engineers alike a process for mission/product success, and Maintenance Cost Reductions.
9D2 [0102] PHYSICAL SIMULATION IN SPACE LAUNCHER ENGINE RISK ASSESSMENT
by Balachandar Ramamurthy, Eliyahu Horowitz, and Joseph R. Fragola, Valador, Inc.
This paper discusses a methodology for the application of physical simulation techniques to the risk assessment of liquid propellant rocket engines, with an example of its application to a Liquid Hydrogen, Liquid Oxygen gas generator cycle engine.
9D3 [0192] INTERMEDIATE FAILURE STATES IN SIMULATION-BASED LAUNCH VEHICLE RISK STUDY by Ted Manning, NASA, Scott Lawrence, NASA Ames Research Center, Hamed S. Nejad, Ph.D., ELORET Corporation, and Peter Gage, Neerim Corporation
Intermediate failure states are added to a simulation-based risk assessment approach for crewed launch vehicle aborts. While minimizing analysis complexity, these common system-level failure states mark the onset of “loss-of- mission” and permit a more faithful representation of the nuances in path and timing between initial failure and final catastrophic, crew-threatening outcome. The updated model’s utility will be demonstrated in the context of using crew risk to guide abort trigger selection
9D4 [0086] MODELING AND SIMULATION FOR NETWORK TRANSMISSION TIME RELIABILITY
by Ruiying Li, Ning Huang, and Rui Kang, Beihang University
According to the network function, network transmission time reliability is advanced as a common parameter to describe network congestion. To evaluate this parameter, structure model, route model, service mechanism model and mission model are built, as well as the simulation flow & evaluation method are expressed. Finally, the backbone of CERNET is studied as a case, and the result shows that this modeling and simulation method is effectively.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 11C, Wednesday, 27 January 2010, 1330-1530
Moderator: John V. Turner, Ph.D., NASA Johnson Spaceflight Center
This session includes papers on a wide variety of risk related applications. From Lunar surface systems analysis, through the assessment of the fire risk in an historic hanger, and the assessment of a residential care facility. The session demonstrates the broad spectrum of applications that have been addressed with risk assessment models.
Papers:
11C1 [0183] ASSESSING THE FIRE RISK FOR A HISTORIC HANGAR
by Koushik Datta, Ph.D. and Richard Morrison, NASA
This paper documents a fire risk assessment performed at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) in relation to the renovation of a historic hangar.
11C2 [0050] POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF FORM AND SORM FOR PRA
by Edward J. Zampino, NASA Glenn Research Center and Ian Miller, N&R Engineering and Management Services
Response Surface Technique is being considered as a way to allow any computationally intense high fidelity physics-based model to generate eventual input probabilities for a PRA logic model. First order, second order, and Monte Carlo reliability methods were applied to a streamlined finite element model of a hypothetical propeller blade design. Then physical complexity was incrementally added to the test model to demonstrate when FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo begin to show differences.
11C3 [0196] FMEA AT A RESIDENTIAL CARE FACILITY
by Karen Mohan, Duane Huffman, CRE, and George Gross, Relex Software Corporation
This paper describes a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) performed on an Emergency Alert System at a residential care facility. The FMEA included both the functional failures of the electronic system as well as the human factors that could cause a failure in the process. Management used the analysis to focus on mitigating the risk associated with the most critical failure modes at the facility.
11C4 [0200] RISK ASSESSMENT SENSITIVITY STUDY FOR LUNAR SURFACE SYSTEMS
by Susie Go, Ph.D., Donovan L. Mathias, Ph.D, NASA Ames Research Center, Hamed S. Nejad, Ph.D., ELORET Corporation
The goal of this study has been to prioritize the lunar surface risk analysis activities by first identifying the major transportation and lunar surface elements’ risk drivers and then quantifying the sensitivity of the surface systems’ performance to various risk parameters. A dynamic Monte Carlo risk simulation model consisting of all transportation and lunar surface elements is developed for this study.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 11D, Wednesday, 27 January 2010, 1330-1530
Moderator: Frank Straka, Andrew Corporation
The session is a combination of analytical reliability and risk modeling techniques, design-reliability cooperation, and test techniques for product reliability achievement and enhancement.
Papers:
11D1 [0158] USING ELECTRONIC DESIGN AUTOMATION TOOLS THROUGHOUT PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE by Bryan Stallard, Mike Silverman, Ops A La Carte
Challenges routinely arise on programs for military, aerospace, telecommunication, and medical that have significant non-recurring engineering (NRE) content and have potentially severe impact on users when failures arise. In this setting, product life cycle (PLC) use of electronic design automation (EDA) tools offers an improved way to address issues in parts obsolescence, pattern failure emergences, parts-counterfeiting eruptions, and qualification of commercial off-the-shelf products.
11D2 [0250] A LIFE CYCLE-BASED SOFTWARE RELIABILITY APPROACH FOR NASA PROJECTS
by Ying Shi, ManTech SRS Technologies, Prince Kalia, John W. Evans, Ph.D., Anthony J. DiVenti, NASA
This paper discusses a life-cycle based software reliability assurance guideline which could be used in future NASA projects. The guideline could provide a success road-map of integrated system risk management from early development phases for timely identification of valued improvement focus tasks and thus help in the informed decision making process throughout the life cycle including successful deployment of the system.
11D3 [0099] RISK INFORMED DESIGN MODELING PROCESS & DESIGN TEAM – ANALYST INTERACTION by Chris Mattenberger, Valador, Inc.
The Altair Lunar Lander has recently completed a Lunar Design Analysis Cycle which employed a Risk Informed Design process utilizing the Valador Reliability Tool. This paper explores the process, techniques, lessons learned, and overall experience of the project from the view point of the lead Risk Analyst.
11D4 [0195] ADVANCEMENTS IN FAILURE DETECTION
by Gregg K. Hobbs, PE, Ph.D., Hobbs Engineering Corp.
A procedure called Modulated Excitation has been developed that has been observed to improve detection by orders of magnitude. The technique will be discussed in detail and some examples given of its use. In the author’s experience, the results are that some 17x as many defects are detected than when the technique is not used. Additionally, the technique has been used on NDF (No Defects Found) field returns with great success and has essentially eliminated the problem of NDFs.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Sessions: 12C, Wednesday, 27 January 2010, 1545-1745
Moderator: Harold E. Ascher, Harold E. Ascher & Associates
This sessions contains several papers that explore modeling strategies and issues for complex systems. Common cause failures and dependent systems are analyzed in this session.
Papers:
12C1 [0010] APPLYING BETA AND MESH MODELS FOR COMMON CAUSE FAILURE TO TRIPLEX SYSTEMS by Julia V. Bukowski, Ph.D., Villanova University
International standards for safety system evaluation require that common cause failures be addressed and provides a methodology using the β factor which was originally designed for use in duplex systems. This paper shows how β must be modified to be applicable to triplex systems.
12C2 [0072] RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF MISSIONS WITH COOPERATING PLATFORMS
by Professor John Andrews, Nottingham University, Rasa Remenyte-Prescott, Ph.D., Darren Prescott, Loughborough University
This paper describes how to calculate a mission reliability when platforms work together to achieve an objective. This type of mission is typical of military applications but is also relevant to applications such as search and rescue. Each platform has its own mission to perform which is made up of phases (tasks) which it must accomplish for its own mission. Some of these phases will contribute to the success of the whole, integrated, mission.
12C3 [0004] EFFICIENT ANALYSIS OF IMPERFECT COVERAGE SYSTEMS WITH FUNCTIONAL DEPENDENCE by Liudong Xing, Ph.D., Univ. of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Joanne Bechta Dugan, Pd.D., University of Virginia, and Brock Morrissette, Lockheed Martin
This paper proposes a combinatorial approach to the reliability analysis of imperfect fault coverage systems subject to functional dependence. As compared to traditional approaches based on Markov models, the proposed method can offer exact and computationally efficient solution to large-scale system analysis, and can be applicable to analyzing systems with general component failure distributions. Several case studies are presented to illustrate the basics and advantages of the proposed method.
12C4 [0129] THE APPLICATION OF CREAM BASED ON HAZOP ANALYSIS IN USING PROCESS OF SYSTEM by Wei Wang and Tingdi Zhao, Ph.D., Beihang University
According to the deficiency of Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method CREAM in using process of weapon, this paper provides an improved CREAM based the HAZOP. Using the improved method, the whole event sequences which can be used for the retrospective and predictive analysis in CREAM can be gained. An example of the diesel engine starting underwater is discussed.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 12D, Wednesday, 27 January 2009, 1545-1745
Moderator: Sean Carter, NASA Johnson Space Center
The session compiles advanced reliability assessment techniques as applied to the specific types of modern components and systems including the lead free electronics.
Papers:
12D1 [0005] AN IMPROVED MONTE CARLO METHOD IN FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
by Olexandr Yevkin, Ph.D., Dyadem International Ltd
Significant improvements of Monte Carlo method are suggested for static and dynamic fault tree analysis. The variance reduction method in combination with other approaches is studied and developed for highly reliable systems. The efficiency and accuracy of the improved method is demonstrated by numerous calculations of most complex industrial benchmarks.
12D2 [0139] ANALYZING FAILURE FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY IN COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
by Tatsuya Matsukawa, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation
Network reliability is a critical requirement for communication network services. In IP networks, the numbers of end users and network elements are greatly increased and the network structure is often changed after services have already been deployed. Therefore, the network availability also has to be monitored and maintained in the operation phase. This paper describes methods and examples of analyzing the failure frequency and severity in communication networks.
12D3 [0020] A GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING EQUIPMENT AGING
by Joel A. Nachlas, Ph.D., Virginia Tech and C. Richard Cassady, Ph.D., University of Arkansas
Provides general models for distinguishing between clock time and age of equipment in terms of intensity of use and operating environment.
12D4 [0132] RUGGEDNESS AND RELIABILITY OF LEAD-FREE ELECTRONICS
by John Starr, CirVibe Inc
There is a broad range of ruggedization methods and screening methods used for developing a reliable product – some old, some new – some more effective than others. This paper addresses the increased needs for reliability of emerging technologies such as lead-free.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 13C, Thursday, 28 January 2010, 0800-1000
Moderator: Natesan Jambulingam, Ph.D., NASA Safety Center
In this session, a variety of optimization and control strategies are presented that are applicable for modeling and analysis of repairable systems. Heuristic optimization techniques are disused as well as techniques for measuring performance.
Papers:
13C1 [0011] DEVELOPING EFFECTIVE SPARE PARTS ESTIMATIONS RESULTS IN IMPROVED SYSTEM AVAILABILITY by Behzad Ghodrati, Dragan Banjevic, Ph.D., Andrew K. S. Jardine, University of Toronto
In the present competitive manufacturing industries reducing the total production cost is a big challenge. In this regard, the maintenance plays an important role. Spare parts availability as an issue of maintenance process could guarantee the minimum downtime while maintenance operations are in the process. Optimum number of spare parts that should be stocked can be estimated based on system/machine reliability characteristics and actual working situation. This topic has been studied here.
13C2 [0208] SOFT COMPUTING APPROACHES IN RELIABILITY MODELING OF REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS by Marcia F. P. Salgado, Walmir Matos Caminhas, Benjamim R. Menezes, Ph.D., UFMG
This paper reviews soft computing approaches for modeling reliability of repairable systems. Albeit soft computing techniques such as neural networks and fuzzy systems and even stochastic methods have been employed for solving many different engineering complex problems, traditional approaches are still preferred by industry. Unfortunately with the increasing complexity of modern systems such techniques might not be able to capture the changes in systems features in a precise way.
13C3 [0093] RELIABILITY ANALYSIS – A TOOL SET FOR IMPROVING BUSINESS PROCESSES
by Aron Brall, ManTech SRS Technologies
A presentation of reliability analysis tools applied to business processes to reduce errors and improve a business bottom line.
13C4 [0202] TRANSENDING PERFORMABILITY TO ACHIEVE CONSISTENT SYSTEM ANALYSES
by Meng-Lai Yin, Ph.D., ECE, Cal Poly Pomona
For complex systems where different perspectives need to be addressed, maintaining consistency among various system analyses is a challenge. A framework that supports a “global view” to govern various analyses is critical for the integrity of system analyses. This paper demonstrates a way of transcending the traditional performability to provide a framework to achieve consistent system analyses. This mechanism has been applied in several real-life systems.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 13D, Thursday, 28 January 2010, 0800-1000
Moderator: Julio Pulido, Ph.D., SE, Ingersoll Rand
Today’s companies need to develop reliable products faster. The session will cover papers showing common product validation practices across several industries in order to achieve an expected field reliability level.
Papers:
13D1 [0114] COMPLIANCE TESTING IS NOT RELIABILITY TESTING
by Vaishali Hegde, Philips Respironics
The healthcare industry is expanding rapidly. Manufacturers want to be first to market with innovative products. This has led to a common (mis)belief, in the medical device industry, that successfully completing FDA mandated compliance testing, which requires less time than reliability testing, ensures a reliable product. This paper outlines the differences between compliance and reliability testing, with real life examples from the medical industry and provides tips to reduce overall compliance
13D2 [0088] RELIABILITY TEST PROCEDURES FOR ACHIEVING HIGHLY ROBUST ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS by A. Tarkan Tekcan and Barbaros Kirisken, Vestel Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
In this paper, reliability improvement procedures for consumer electronic products in a large scale manufacturing plant are introduced. Reliability improvement process is composed by a series of reliability validation and approval tests, procedures and lastly, calculations and analysis. Also, all kind of reliability problems found by production quality, outgoing quality, third party customers and end users are well noted, and test procedures can be scrutinized.
13D3 [0069] HOW TO DESIGN A BETTER RELIABILITY TEST PROGRAM
by Mike Silverman and Talmy Rauch, Ops A La Carte
More and more industries are competing on reliability, and companies need to develop more reliable products faster. However, reliability test plans are often generic or blindly following industry standards. Test plans must be tailored to fit customer use profiles. Also, reliability testing often occurs too late in the process when development is nearly complete. This presentation will offer a solution to these two fundamental issues of Testing Too Little and Testing Too Late.
13D4 [0185] INCORPORATING FIELD RELIABILITY VARIATIONS IN PRODUCTION TEST OPTIMIZATION by Bahman Honari, University of Limerick, John Donovan, Ph.D., Institute of Technology Sligo, and Eamonn Murphy, Ph.D., University of Limerick
This paper develops a reliability model that incorporates production test information with field reliability performance. This model then is integrated into a field reliability changes early detection system to allow one to regularly optimize the test duration and profile to minimize the total test-field costs directly.
13D5 [0059] THE EXTENDED CONTINUOUS EVALUATION RELIABILITY GROWTH MODEL
by Larry H. Crow, Ph.D., Crow Reliability Resources
Reliability growth testing generally takes place over several consecutive test phases. At the end of each test phase delayed correction actions are incorporated into the system in order to improve the reliability. Of considerable interest to management and reliability engineering are several estimates of the reliability at the end of a test phase. One estimate is an assessment of the reliability at the end of the test phase before the delayed corrective actions are incorporated.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 14A, Thursday, 28 January 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: Sanford (Sandy) Liebesman, Ph.D., Consultant
This session includes a broad range of models and methods for reliability and safety assessment. Included are: A new approach to include oil aging in reliability modeling; The use of Support Vector Machines to provide more accurate results than Artificial Neural Networks (ANN); An ANN approach that uses both failure and suspension condition monitoring histories; and a methodology supporting the qualitative and quantitative safety analysis of complex embedded systems.
Papers:
14A1 [0060] ESTIMATING THE LIFETIME OF GEAR LUBRICANTS
by Christian Maisch, Dipl.-Ing., Daniel Kirschmann, Bernd Bertsche, Dr.-Ing., Universitaet Stuttgart
Nowadays the prediction of the system reliability is the main goal in order to minimize warranty costs, meet quality standards and ensure the customers satisfaction. In this article a new approach is presented how to include oil aging into reliability modeling.
14A2 [0253] APPLICATIONS OF MODELING AND SIMULATIONS WITH PROBABILISTIC METHOD TO PREDICT RELIABILITY AT HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL by Ramdev Kanapady, Ph. D, MSC Works, Inc., and Ron Adib, Ph.D, P.E., RMA Consulting Group, LLC
This paper present a technique in which computer simulation is used in place of field testing to determine the physics of failure and thereby the item reliability with high confidence level in conjunction with Probabilistic method. This approach subsetantially reduces test cost and decrease the development time table by several order of magnitude.
14A3 [0078] AN ANN APPROACH FOR REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION USING SUSPENSION HISTORIES by Zhigang Tian, Ph.D., Concordia University
Artificial neural network (ANN) methods have shown great promises in achieving more accurate equipment remaining useful life prediction. However, most reported ANN methods only utilize condition monitoring data from failure histories. In this paper, we develop an ANN approach utilizing both failure and suspension condition monitoring histories. The proposed approach is validated using real-world vibration monitoring data collected from pump bearings in the field.
14A4 [0169] DEPENDABILITY EVALUATION OF COMPLEX EMBEDDED SYSTEMS AND MICROSYSTEMS by Olaf Malasse, Gregory Buchheit, A3SI, Arts et Metiers ParisTech, Michael Pock, LRR, TU-Munchen, and Hicham Belhadaoui, A3SI, Arts et Metiers ParisTech
The evaluation of the dependability performance (RAMS) of complex embedded systems requires the development of new approaches. In software-intensive systems, the dependability structure of the functions depends on the software. The search of fault sequences must involve software and hardware. The proposed method contributes to the qualitative and quantitative safety analysis of systems and micro-systems.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 14B, Thursday, 28 January 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: Warren Naylor, Northrop Grumman
This session will explore different system safety methodologies and how they can be used to define system risk. The presentations will cover a broad range of topics from subsystem testing up through evaluation of commercial new business decision-making.
Papers:
14B1 [0131] CODE OF PRACTICES & SAFETY RELATED ITEMS LIST (SRIL) IN RAILWAY INDUSTRY
by Jacques J. Durand, Alstom Transport
The so called Safety Critical Items List (SCIL) concept of our MIL-STD-882 standard has been revisited by the rail Industry to highlight the requirements for the quality inspection (in-house and/or incoming inspection), for purchasing specifications, for special care in assembling and testing subsystems and equipment, and for preventative maintenance.
14B2 [0075] USING RISK ASSESSMENT TO MITIGATE NEW BUSINESS DEMANDS UNCERTAINTIES
by Luciano Gomes and Carlos Alberto Scapin, INDG – Institute for Managerial Development
To be eligible to enter in the global market, companies need to comply with legal and regulatory requirements and international norms besides of products reliability. Those requirements are regulated by contracts between companies that impose several penalties for non-accomplishment with them. This paper will explore a technique of Risk Assessment to mitigate new business demands uncertainties by integration of FTA, cut sets probabilities, Cost Risk Simulation and QFD matrix.
14B3 [0111] AN ACCIDENT ANALYSIS MODEL ORIENTED TO COMPLEX TASKS PROCESS
by Xiaolei Li, Tingdi Zhao, Ph.D., Mei Rong, Beihang University
Based on summing up the existing accident models and analyzing the characteristics of complex systems, a new accident analysis model oriented to complex tasks process is presented in this paper. This model expounds the cause of the accident by analyzing the complex process and multi-factor coupling. Also, this paper proposes the systematic method on the technical level for the model, such as a new method, process breakdown structure (PBS) and the mode of multi-factor coupling.
14B4 [0064] PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF SAFETY-CRITICAL SYSTEMS SUBJECT TO PARTIAL TESTS by Florent Brissaud, INERIS, Anne Barros, Christophe Berenguer, Ph.D., Universite de technologie de Troyes/CNRS-LM2
A set of general formulas are proposed for the availability assessment of MooN architecture (i.e. k-out-of-n) systems made up by homogeneous components and subject to partial and proof tests. Partial tests may detect only some system failures, whereas proof tests allow restoring the system to an as good as new condition. Analyses show that the average probability of system failure on demand can be improved, just by a better non-periodic distribution of partial tests.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 14C, Thursday, 28 January 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: Mike Silverman, Ops A La Carte
This session covers multi objective optimization, Reliability Based design Optimization, Robust Design, Markov Modeling, Shock base degradation systems, Software Reliability Predictions methods in several industrial applications.
Papers:
14C1 [0066] ACCURATE MODELING OF SHARED COMPONENTS IN HIGH RELIABILITY APPLICATIONS by Julia V. Bukowski, Ph.D., Villanova University and Chris O’Brien, Exida
International standards for safety system evaluation require that shared components either be accurately modeled or not be used. This paper shows how to accurately model shared components in safety instrumented systems.
14C2 [0209] COMMON CAUSE FAILURES: IMPLEMENTATION OF A SIMPLIFIED ALPHA FACTOR MODEL by Colie Warren, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company
The selected methodology used to quantify the risk of common cause failures can have a large impact on both probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model complexity and the resulting estimation of risk. This paper is intended to provide PRA analysts in space and other industries with practical guidance for implementing a simplification of the common cause Alpha Factor method that reduces model complexity while allowing the analyst to tailor risk to specific component failure criteria.
14C3 [0079] A MULTI-OBJECTIVE MEMETIC ALGORITHM FOR RBDO AND ROBUST DESIGN
by Xiaotian Zhuang and Rong Pan, Ph.D., Arizona State University
Reliability and Robustness are two important attributes of product design under uncertainty. So it is necessary to establish a probabilistic multi-objective problem to combine reliability and robustness considerations, where the products performance and the variation of performance are simultaneously optimized, subject to probabilistic constraints for design feasibility. An efficient Multi-Objective Memetic Algorithm (MOMA) is presented here to optimize reliability and robustness simultaneously.
14C4 [0104] DEGRADED SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS SUBJECT TO SHOCKS by Chun-yang Li, Xun Chen, Xiao-shan Yi, Institution of Mechatronics Engineering, and Jun-yong Tao, National University of Defense Technology
The reliability of degraded systems with multiple performance parameters subject to random shocks is predicted in this paper when the degradation processes of performance parameters are independent and dependent. The system performance and shock magnitude must be not less than zero, so the effect caused by ranges of the system performance and shock magnitude is discussed.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Session: 14D, Thursday, 28 January 2010, 1015-1215
Moderator: Claudio Spano, CRP, ReliaSoft Brasil
The session deals with condition-based maintenance, sensitivity analysis for Maintenance of a gradually deteriorating systems or devices which undergoes a change in its deterioration rate due to an environment or operational condition.
Papers:
14D1 [0043] A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR ‘INHERENT RELIABILITY’ FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS
by Rene L. Bierbaum, Sandia National Laboratories
Many people, when thinking about a product’s lifetime vis-à-vis defectiveness, use the “bathtub curve” as a model. However, this model is not entirely apt for nuclear weapons. In this paper, a conceptual model for inherent reliability for nuclear weapons will be proposed. Historical surveillance observations that appear to substantiate the bathtub curve model of reliability will instead be shown to support the new conceptual model. This model is likely relevant to other one-shot products.
14D2 [0090] OPTIMAL SAFETY-CRITICAL PARTS REPLACEMENT IN AGING FLEETS
by Peng Wang, Ph.D., Hamilton Sundstrand Power Systems and Tongdan Jin, Ph.D., Texas A&M International University
This paper attempts to propose a practical approach to solving a maintenance optimization problem with uncertain utilizations. This problem is associated with the determination of optimal replacement times for safety-critical parts used in aircraft systems by considering both safety requirements and cost benefits. Specifically, a fleet of aircrafts installed with a type of turbine engine have been in operation for several years.
14D3 [0081] VALUE OF CONDITION MONITORING INFORMATION FOR MAINTENANCE DECISION-MAKING by Tuan Khac Huynh, Anne Barros, Christophe Berenguer, Ph.D., Universite de technologie de Troyes/CNRS-LM2 ,Inmaculada Torres-Castro, Escuela Politecnica
This paper develops the mathematical cost models for two maintenance policies (i.e. block replacement and periodic inspection/replacement) for a one-unit deteriorating system whose failures are due to the competing causes of accumulated wear and traumatic “shock” events. The value of the condition monitoring information obtained through the inspections is investigated by comparing on numerical examples the costs of both policies.
14D4 [0082] ASSESSMENT OF MAINTENANCE POLICIES FOR A MULTI-DETERIORATION RATES SYSTEM by Amelie Ponchet, Mitra Fouladirad, and Dr. A. Grall, Universite Technologie Troyes
This paper deals with condition-based maintenance of a gradually deteriorating system or device which undergoes a change in its deterioration rate due to e.g. an environment condition. The change is modeled by covariates which impact the degradation rate and lead to its sudden increase in a life cycle. The main aim of the work is to develop models which allow to assess the interest of change mode monitoring from the maintenance decision-making point of view.
Posted in Technical Sessions
Dr. John Healy, General Chair, 2010 RAMS
The 2010 Keynote Speaker this year is Edmund Thomas from Harris, Wiltshire & Grannis and his keynote is entitled “Technology Trends – Implications.”
Posted in Panel Sessions and Workshops
Leaders from industry and government will discuss the technical, management, and training issues associated with using reliability as a competitive advantage in today’s global business environment. Symposium attendees may submit questions in advance to the panelists or raise them from the floor.
Posted in Panel Sessions and Workshops
The Panel session will focus on 2 topics: 1) the methods used for reliability predictions, including the uses and misuses of empirical, handbooks and PoF Models and Methods and 2) the future improvements to MIL-HDBK-217, with new methods that should be included in a future revision of MIL-HDBK-217 to satisfy the needs for accurate field reliability assessments. This panel will discuss the potential inclusion of Physics of Failure (PoF) methods, system failure cause models, and other methods.
Posted in Panel Sessions and Workshops
R&M CAE tools continue to evolve in support of industry’s business processes. Our RAMS Exhibitors will highlight their latest functionality through brief presentations and demonstrations in a neutral setting. Please check outside the room for the vendor presentation schedule.
Posted in Panel Sessions and Workshops
Session: 1A, Monday 8:00-12:15
Core Tutor: C. Richard Cassady, Ph.D.
The purpose of this tutorial is to provide attendees with basic coverage of the traditional, fundamental probability models used to describe, improve, and optimize system reliability and maintainability. This coverage requires the discussion of some basic concepts from probability and distribution theory. No specific models are endorsed. Instead, emphasis is placed on identifying the key assumptions associated with each model. More…
Posted in 2010, Core Tutorials
Session: 1B, Monday 8:00-10:00
How to accommodate today’s ever higher demands on complex system availability targets, while remaining mindful of life-cycle cost (LCC)? A method will be presented to assess the impact of testability strategies, maintenance policies, and redundancy management on system availability and LCC. Markov diagrams and Petri nets are used to that end. Impact of ageing and imperfect maintenance is taken into account. The method is illustrated on communication networks and rail industry examinations.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 2B, Monday 10:15-12:15
This paper explains the technical and mathematical methodology for acceleration of reliability qualification (fixed duration with and without replacement) and reliability assurance tests (SPRT) using physics and engineering rationale along with appropriately modified mathematical approach in the test design and data analysis. This approach is with the intent to obtain meaningful and relevant information on reliability of products in their actual use and in a cost and schedule effective manner.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 4A, Monday 15:45-17:45
Core Tutor: Duane L. Dietrich, Ph.D.
In this presentation a product is followed from design inception to product retirement. The appropriate location and use of (1) Over Stress Tests, (2) Design Reviews, (3) FMEA, (4) Reliability System Analysis, (5) Accelerated Life Tests, (6) Real Time Life Tests, (7) Reliability Growth Tests, (8) Burn-In, (9) Environmental Stress Screens and (10) Statistical Process Control are discussed. Finally, field failures and the steps necessary to insure that the resulting engineering change orders yield improved reliability are covered. This paper is based primarily on the observation and experience of the author which was gained during a 40-year career in reliability and quality. More…
Posted in 2010, Core Tutorials
Session: 4B, Monday 15:45-17:45
This tutorial provides an overview of current state of the art in system risk, reliability, and maintenance modeling using dynamic methods. The target audience of the tutorial is engineers who are familiar with the basic concepts of static (Boolean-based) system reliability modeling (RBD and/or FT) and who are unsure when (if at all) the benefits of using dynamic tools outweigh their drawbacks.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 4C, Monday 15:45-17:45
This session describes actions being taken within the Department of Defense to implement new RAM initiatives directed by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology. Information is presented on the use of reliability engineering design practices; the concept, definition, and rationale for Materiel Availability (Am); and guidelines for Army T&E community use to insure RAM engineering and RAM T&E requirements remain at the forefront of T&E planning and management.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 5A, Tuesday 8:00-12:15
Core Tutors: Caroline Lubert, Ph.D., and Clifford Lange, Ph.D.
The application of statistical analysis to reliability, maintainability, and supportability data offers huge potential to producer and consumer alike in terms of accurate prediction of system performance measures such as availability and cost effectiveness. In addition quantitative analysis of a system is an objective means to evaluate alternative prospective designs and to measure system behavior against prescribed figures of merit. More…
Posted in 2010, Core Tutorials
Session: 5B, Tuesday 8:00-10:00
For many products, accelerated degradation testing is more efficient than accelerated life testing. This tutorial presents accelerated degradation test methods, degradation models, estimation of model parameters, relationships between degradation and reliability, and estimation of reliability. Several practical examples are presented for illustration.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 6B, Tuesday 10:15-12:15
Even though risk management is not a new topic in life, science, or business, there has been a growing emphasis on applying formal risk-based methods to decision-making. This tutorial provides a foundation for scientists, engineers, and business executives to explicitly apply risk-based approaches to help solve problems in their disciplines. The emphasis in the tutorial is on understanding risk and its many attributes, using both subjective and quantitative examples.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 7A, Tuesday 13:50-15:30
Core Tutor: John Andrews, Ph.D.
A fault tree represents the causes of a specified system failure mode in terms of the failure modes of the system components. The analysis of the fault tree can produce two types of result: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative results specify the minimal contributions of component failures which result in system failure. Quantification provides the probability or frequency of the system failure modes. More…
Posted in 2010, Core Tutorials
Session: 7B, Tuesday 13:30-15:30
This tutorial will teach attendees how to plan and conduct experiments effectively and efficiently, and more importantly how to analyze data correctly. Properties of different design types will be discussed. Methodologies for modeling and analyzing different data obtained from designed experiments will be introduced. The appropriate approach for investigating censored data obtained from life testing will also be presented.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 8A, Tuesday, 15:45-17:45
Core Tutor: John B. Bowles, Ph.D.
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is potentially one of the most beneficial and productive tasks in a well structured reliability program. It has evolved from a safety analysis, usually done after the design was complete, into a powerful design tool that can be used throughout the development process to enhance product safety and reliability. A FMEA consists of examining the modes and causes of potential item failures and determining the product response to the failure. Steps can then be taken to change the design to eliminate the failure, mitigate its effects, or develop compensating provisions if the failure should occur. FMEA can be applied to hardware, software, material, and process related causes of failure. More…
Posted in 2010, Core Tutorials
Session: 8B, Tuesday 15:45-17:45
The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce the basic concepts of optimization in R&M. We review the fundamentals of optimization theory, then explore various optimization techniques, including specific optimization models for R&M problems, methods for s_olving them, and provide some examples for understanding the application. This is an advanced tutorial and upon completion of the tutorial, attendees should have an understanding of optimization in general and how it applies to R&M problems.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 9A, Wednesday 8:00-10:00
Markov chains are a class of stochastic processes that can be used to model a wide variety of issues related to reliability and maintainability. This tutorial covers the fundamental concepts of discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chains.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 9B, Wednesday 8:00-10:00
The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce attendees to empirical modeling techniques for process and equipment monitoring, detection, diagnostics, and prognostics. The tutorial will provide a brief background and an overview of the theoretical foundations. The course will be applications oriented in that the assumptions inherent in the techniques will be explained so that the appropriate technique can be selected and applied to solve specific engineering problems. Case studies are included.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 11A, Wedneday 13:30-15:30
Failure Mode & Effects Analysis has the potential to be a powerful reliability tool to reduce product design and manufacturing risk in a cost effective manner. With shorter product development times, tighter budgets and intense global competition, Design for Reliability tools such as FMEA must be applied correctly. Why is it that some companies have outstanding success in their FMEA application and others do not? What is the difference between well done and poorly done FMEAs?
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 11B, Wednesday 13:30-15:30
This tutorial will provide an overview of several reliability demonstration methods and techniques practiced in the industry. Tutorial will cover pros and cons of application of each method based on product type, reliability requirements, and cost considerations.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 12A, Wednesday 15:45-17:45
This tutorial will address practical Software Reliability concepts, models, and tools, and how they should be applied throughout the product life cycle. Discussions will include the Software Reliability Process, Capability Maturity Model, Rayleigh Model Analysis (Software Error Estimation Program – SWEEP), and the Computer Aided Software Reliability Estimation (CASRE) tool. The tutorial attendee will gain a basic understanding of SW Reliability and know how to get and apply pertinent tools.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 12B, Wednesday 15:45-17:45
This tutorial is presented by a veteran of the System Safety Society. The goal is to learn the science of system safety and how to implement safety measures proactively and efficiently in any industry. It is intended for beginning level engineers and intermediate level practitioners in design and safety. Technical managers in all engineering fields will find it a good overview of system safety. Examples from aerospace, medical device, automotive, and healthcare industries are covered.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 13A, Thursday 8:00-10:00
This tutorial introduces basic information about closed loop corrective action processes. and addresses several of the key obstacles to deriving a successful closed loop corrective action process. The tutorial includes best practice suggestions and a proven methodology to fully realize the benefits of a lucrative closed loop corrective action process. Several case studies are presented to highlight success stories from various groups.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Session: 13B, Thursday 8:00-10:00
This tutorial reviews probabilistic models and statistical methods used for the forecasting of warranty claims and the associated cost. The discussion is illustrated by case studies from the author’s corporate and consulting experience.
Posted in 2010, Elective Tutorials
Our Program
2010 Program Below, 2011 Coming Later This Year!
RAMS 2010: Transcending Traditional Reliability Approaches—from Theory to Practice. RAMS 2010 Final Program now available! RAMS 2010 Banquet Program now available!
RAMS 2010 will focus on the continuing development of reliability (and safety) as a competitive advantage in every industry from communications and energy to transportation and defense. In the history of this Symposium, reliability, maintainability, and safety have never been more crucial in the design, development, and operation of components systems and networks.
Read further for detailed descriptions of each session, or download the printable brochure. Attendance at RAMS presentations and tutorials may be used to earn CEUs, as well as RAMS Tutorial Certification. ASQ Certification exams are also available onsite.